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Probability of Chance Experiments
Rung 1 of 4 · Discover

Where the Probability Number Comes From

Spoiler: it's a fraction you already know how to make. Probability is just the favourable outcomes over the total outcomes — and a spinner shows it converging before your eyes.

NESA MA4-PRO-C-01Foundation concept

PlayPick a colour to chase, then spin once — or 50 times — and watch the experimental number creep towards the theoretical one.
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Probability answers one simple question: out of everything that could happen, how big a slice is the thing I care about? That slice, written as a fraction, is the probability.

Counting the Slices

Take the spinner in the toy with four equal colours. Only one of them is brass. There are four outcomes that could happen, and one of them is the one you want, so the chance of brass is 1 out of 4 — written 1/4, or 0.25. You didn't need a special rule; you counted the favourable slice and divided by the total number of slices. That's the whole idea.

Say it plainly: theoretical probability = favourable outcomes ÷ total outcomes. The fraction you build by counting is the chance.

Theory Says One Thing — the Spins Prove It

The clever bit is the experimental tally next to it. Spin once and it's all over the shop: maybe you hit brass, maybe you don't, so the experimental fraction lurches between 0 and 1. Hit "spin 50 times" a few times, though, and watch — the experimental number stops jumping and settles right onto the theoretical 0.25. The more you spin, the more the doing agrees with the counting.

Why That Matters

It means the fraction you work out on paper isn't a guess — it's a genuine prediction of what really happens, just blurred a bit until you've done enough trials. Counting outcomes and rolling the dice are two roads to the same number. Everything else in probability is built on this one move.

Us, Thinking Out Loud

Why does the experimental number wobble at first but settle later?

Where else do we meet a "favourable out of total" — sport, card games, the weather?